Historical biogeography of Caribbean <i>Podocarpus</i> does not support the progression rule
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Aim The Progression Rule, that older lineages inhabit older islands and colonize newer ones as they emerge, has seldom been tested in the Caribbean due to its geological complexity. Here, we use the conifer genus Podocarpus to explore this hypothesis. We infer the evolutionary history, biogeography, and diversification rates of this genus under a hypothesis testing framework. Location The Caribbean archipelago (Antilles). Taxon Podocarpus (Podocarpaceae). Methods We present the most comprehensive sampling for Caribbean Podocarpus to date in a Bayesian dated phylogenetic tree using a genotyping by sequencing DNA matrix of 67,589 bp. We inferred ancestral ranges and inter‐island divergence patterns using several models available. We explored diversification rates associated with island colonization, and checked for diversification rate shifts in the phylogeny. Results Caribbean Podocarpus is the result of colonization from the Andes during the Eocene to Oligocene ( c . 45–31 Ma). Lesser Antillean species originated during the Oligocene from the Andes or the Greater Antilles, depending on the model of choice. Vicariance can explain the divergence of Cuban and Hispaniolan species, with subsequent dispersals into Jamaica. Despite the availability of new habitat opportunities, which might promote cladogenesis, insular Podocarpus did not show higher diversification rates than continental taxa. Main conclusions The conditions for progression rule were not met because colonization of younger islands (Lesser Antilles) occurred from the continent, or because suitable habitat in the partially emerged younger islands was likely present at the time older islands (Greater Antilles) were colonized. An improved palaeogeographical knowledge of the Caribbean will allow testing this hypothesis in multiple lineages. Our finding that diversification rates did not increase with island colonization might be common in other Caribbean lineages. Genotyping by sequencing proved promising to reveal complex historical assembly processes of vicariance and dispersal at a fine phylogenetic scale.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".