Climate and size of previous cone crops contribute to large-scale synchronous cone production in balsam fir
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Mast year occurrence in trees is often synchronized across large regions. In this study, we used dendrochronological methods based on cone scar characteristics on tree branches in order to reconstruct male and female cone production in balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) during the period 1988–2018. Results indicate that mast years generally occur every second year and can be synchronized across distances >1000 km. The main predictors of current-year cone abundance were cone abundance during the two previous years, which can be considered a proxy for resource availability for cone bud development during the current year, together with relatively warm temperature during cone bud development. Presence of aborted male cones was positively correlated with the occurrence of relatively cold episodes during cone bud development. This finding suggests that the influence of weather on cone crop abundance is at least partly mediated by growth cessation in the developing cone buds. We also suggest that a change in weather patterns before and after the 2005–2010 period is responsible for a switch in mast years from even to uneven calendar years around that time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".