Quantifying the influence of mutation detection on tumour subclonal reconstruction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Whole-genome sequencing can be used to estimate subclonal populations in tumours and this intra-tumoural heterogeneity is linked to clinical outcomes. Many algorithms have been developed for subclonal reconstruction, but their variabilities and consistencies are largely unknown. We evaluate sixteen pipelines for reconstructing the evolutionary histories of 293 localized prostate cancers from single samples, and eighteen pipelines for the reconstruction of 10 tumours with multi-region sampling. We show that predictions of subclonal architecture and timing of somatic mutations vary extensively across pipelines. Pipelines show consistent types of biases, with those incorporating SomaticSniper and Battenberg preferentially predicting homogenous cancer cell populations and those using MuTect tending to predict multiple populations of cancer cells. Subclonal reconstructions using multi-region sampling confirm that single-sample reconstructions systematically underestimate intra-tumoural heterogeneity, predicting on average fewer than half of the cancer cell populations identified by multi-region sequencing. Overall, these biases suggest caution in interpreting specific architectures and subclonal variants.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".