Transient dynamics of the renal disease epidemic among HIV-infected individuals
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The prevalence of end stage renal disease (ESRD) is rising among HIV-infected populations in several regions worldwide. We used an ordinary differential equation model of the dynamics of the AIDS and HIV+ ESRD populations to investigate the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on the transient dynamics of the epidemic. We considered ART that blocks the entry to each population, by preventing individuals from joining the AIDS population and by reducing the development from AIDS to HIV+ ESRD, as well as the combined effects together. Numerical simulation of our model revealed that when levels of ART are below 100%, the prevalence of HIV+ ESRD drops, but then increases again due to the recovery in the AIDS population. The effect can be seen with ART acting to block entry into either population. We then examined the dip in HIV+ ESRD seen with ART analytically by calculating the minimum HIV+ ESRD level and the time to achieve this minimum. We also evaluated the length of time to reach the minimum and its dependence on ART parameters, both singly and in combination. We conclude that our model predicts that the drop in HIV+ ESRD prevalence seen after increased ART will be followed by an increase, unless ART is sufficiently high enough to eradicate HIV/AIDS.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".