Convolutions of totally positive distributions with applications to kernel density estimation
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this work we study the estimation of the density of a totally positive random vector. Total positivity of the distribution of a random vector implies a strong form of positive dependence between its coordinates and, in particular, it implies positive association. Since estimating a totally positive density is a non-parametric problem, we take on a (modified) kernel density estimation approach. Our main result is that the sum of scaled standard Gaussian bumps centered at a min-max closed set provably yields a totally positive distribution. Hence, our strategy for producing a totally positive estimator is to form the min-max closure of the set of samples, and output a sum of Gaussian bumps centered at the points in this set. We can frame this sum as a convolution between the uniform distribution on a min-max closed set and a scaled standard Gaussian. We further conjecture that convolving any totally positive density with a standard Gaussian remains totally positive.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it