Presenting Stage and Risk Group in Men Dying of Prostate Cancer
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Introduction: Prostate cancer remains the 3rd leading cause of cancer-related mortality in Canadian men, and yet screening for prostate cancer continues to be controversial because the majority of men diagnosed with prostate cancer do not die of the disease. It also remains uncertain whether treatment of cases that can be treated with curative intent alters the mortality rate. There are very few studies describing the presenting stage, risk groups, and survival after diagnosis for men dying of prostate cancer in the literature. In this study, we explored these characteristics for all men who died of prostate cancer in British Columbia between 2013 and 2015. Methods: The population-based BC Cancer databases were used to identify all patients diagnosed between January 2013 and December 2015 who died of prostate cancer. Patient, tumour, and treatment characteristics were collected, and the risk grouping for each tumour was determined. The proportion of cases in each risk group at the time of diagnosis was determined. Survival time from diagnosis to death was calculated for all patients and for each risk group using the Kaplan–Meier method. Results: A total of 1256 patients died of prostate cancer. Of patients who presented with metastatic disease, 57.2% presented with a Gleason score of 8 or more, compared with only 35.7% of patients who presented with nonmetastatic disease (p < 0.0001). The presenting stage and risk group of those dying of prostate cancer were as follows: 32% metastatic disease, 3% regional (defined as node-positive), 39% localized high risk, 9% localized intermediate risk, 4% localized low risk, 6% localized not otherwise specified, and 7% unknown. Therefore, 80.3% of those with a known risk group presented with either localized high-risk, regional, or metastatic disease at diagnosis. The median survival times from diagnosis to death were 12 years for localized low-risk, 10 years for localized intermediate-risk, 6.5 years for localized high-risk, 4 years for regional, and 1.7 years for metastatic disease at diagnosis. Conclusions: This population-based analysis demonstrates that patients with localized high-risk, regional, or metastatic disease at diagnosis constitute the overwhelming majority of patients who die of prostate cancer in British Columbia. Unless these disease states can reliably be identified at an earlier low- or intermediate-risk localized state in the future, it is unlikely that treatment of localized low- and intermediate-risk cancer will have an impact on survival. Furthermore, patients with de novo metastatic disease had identifiable risk factors of a higher prostate-specific antigen and Gleason score. Further studies are required to confirm these results.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".