A hybrid computational framework for intelligent inter-continent SARS-CoV-2 sub-strains characterization and prediction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Whereas accelerated attention beclouded early stages of the coronavirus spread, knowledge of actual pathogenicity and origin of possible sub-strains remained unclear. By harvesting the Global initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) database ( https://www.gisaid.org/ ), between December 2019 and January 15, 2021, a total of 8864 human SARS-CoV-2 complete genome sequences processed by gender, across 6 continents (88 countries) of the world, Antarctica exempt, were analyzed. We hypothesized that data speak for itself and can discern true and explainable patterns of the disease. Identical genome diversity and pattern correlates analysis performed using a hybrid of biotechnology and machine learning methods corroborate the emergence of inter- and intra- SARS-CoV-2 sub-strains transmission and sustain an increase in sub-strains within the various continents, with nucleotide mutations dynamically varying between individuals in close association with the virus as it adapts to its host/environment. Interestingly, some viral sub-strain patterns progressively transformed into new sub-strain clusters indicating varying amino acid, and strong nucleotide association derived from same lineage. A novel cognitive approach to knowledge mining helped the discovery of transmission routes and seamless contact tracing protocol. Our classification results were better than state-of-the-art methods, indicating a more robust system for predicting emerging or new viral sub-strain(s). The results therefore offer explanations for the growing concerns about the virus and its next wave(s). A future direction of this work is a defuzzification of confusable pattern clusters for precise intra-country SARS-CoV-2 sub-strains analytics.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".