Natural arbovirus infection rate and detectability of indoor female Aedes aegypti from Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Arbovirus infection in Aedes aegypti has historically been quantified from a sample of the adult population by pooling collected mosquitoes to increase detectability. However, there is a significant knowledge gap about the magnitude of natural arbovirus infection within areas of active transmission, as well as the sensitivity of detection of such an approach. We used indoor Ae. aegypti sequential sampling with Prokopack aspirators to collect all mosquitoes inside 200 houses with suspected active ABV transmission from the city of Mérida, Mexico, and tested all collected specimens by RT-PCR to quantify: a) the absolute arbovirus infection rate in individually tested Ae. aegypti females; b) the sensitivity of using Prokopack aspirators in detecting ABV-infected mosquitoes; and c) the sensitivity of entomological inoculation rate (EIR) and vectorial capacity (VC), two measures ABV transmission potential, to different estimates of indoor Ae. aegypti abundance. The total number of Ae. aegypti (total catch, the sum of all Ae. aegypti across all collection intervals) as well as the number on the first 10-min of collection (sample, equivalent to a routine adult aspiration session) were calculated. We individually tested by RT-PCR 2,161 Aedes aegypti females and found that 7.7% of them were positive to any ABV. Most infections were CHIKV (77.7%), followed by DENV (11.4%) and ZIKV (9.0%). The distribution of infected Aedes aegypti was overdispersed; 33% houses contributed 81% of the infected mosquitoes. A significant association between ABV infection and Ae. aegypti total catch indoors was found (binomial GLMM, Odds Ratio > 1). A 10-min indoor Prokopack collection led to a low sensitivity of detecting ABV infection (16.3% for detecting infected mosquitoes and 23.4% for detecting infected houses). When averaged across all infested houses, mean EIR ranged between 0.04 and 0.06 infective bites per person per day, and mean VC was 0.6 infectious vectors generated from a population feeding on a single infected host per house/day. Both measures were significantly and positively associated with Ae. aegypti total catch indoors. Our findings provide evidence that the accurate estimation and quantification of arbovirus infection rate and transmission risk is a function of the sampling effort, the local abundance of Aedes aegypti and the intensity of arbovirus circulation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".