In Situ Geochronology for the Next Decade: Mission Designs for the Moon, Mars, and Vesta
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Geochronology is an indispensable tool for reconstructing the geologic history of planets, essential to understanding the formation and evolution of our solar system. Bombardment chronology bounds models of solar system dynamics, as well as the timing of volatile, organic, and siderophile element delivery. Absolute ages of magmatic products provide constraints on the dynamics of magma oceans and crustal formation, as well as the longevity and evolution of interior heat engines and distinct mantle/crustal source regions. Absolute dating also relates habitability markers to the timescale of evolution of life on Earth. However, the number of terrains important to date on worlds of the inner solar system far exceeds our ability to conduct sample return from all of them. In preparation for the upcoming Decadal Survey, our team formulated a set of medium-class (New Frontiers) mission concepts to three different locations (the Moon, Mars, and Vesta) where sites that record solar system bombardment, magmatism, and habitability are uniquely preserved and accessible. We developed a notional payload to directly date planetary surfaces, consisting of two instruments capable of measuring radiometric ages, an imaging spectrometer, optical cameras to provide site geologic context and sample characterization, a trace-element analyzer to augment sample contextualization, and a sample acquisition and handling system. Landers carrying this payload to the Moon, Mars, and Vesta would likely fit into the New Frontiers cost cap in our study (∼$1B). A mission of this type would provide crucial constraints on planetary history while also enabling a broad suite of complementary investigations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".