Synergetic management of energy-water nexus system under uncertainty: An interval bi-level joint-probabilistic programming method
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Synergic management of energy-water nexus (EWN) system is essential for coping with the dilemma of joint shortage of energy and water and supporting socio-economic sustainable development. The system is full of multiple uncertainties, making deterministic analysis methods infeasible. In this study, an interval bi-level joint-probabilistic programming (IBJP) approach is first developed through incorporating bi-level programming (BP) and interval joint-probabilistic programming (IJP) within a framework. IBJP has advantages in balancing the tradeoff between two-level decision makers under uncertainty, tackling uncertainties expressed as joint probabilities and interval values, and examining the risk of violating joint-probabilistic constraints. Then, the developed method is applied to planning China’s EWN system over a long-term planning horizon (2021–2050). Multiple scenarios related to different groups of constraint-violation levels for violating electricity demand and/or water availability constraints are examined. Results reveal that uncertainties associated with joint and individual probabilities have effects on the synergic management of EWN system. Results also disclose that limited water resource can promote electricity generation structure toward a low water-intensity, clean and sustainable pattern, in which the share of clean energy would increase to 66.25% by 2050 and the corresponding water withdrawal would save 41.20%.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".