Concurrent variation in oil and gas methane emissions and oil price during the COVID-19 pandemic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Methane emissions associated with the production, transport, and use of oil and natural gas increase the climatic impacts of energy use; however, little is known about how emissions vary temporally and with commodity prices. We present airborne and ground-based data, supported by satellite observations, to measure weekly to monthly changes in total methane emissions in the United States' Permian Basin during a period of volatile oil prices associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. As oil prices declined from ∼ USD 60 to USD 20 per barrel, emissions changed concurrently from 3.3 % to 1.9 % of natural gas production; as prices partially recovered, emissions increased back to near initial values. Concurrently, total oil and natural gas production only declined by ∼ 10 % from the peak values seen in the months prior to the crash. Activity data indicate that a rapid decline in well development and subsequent effects on associated gas flaring and midstream infrastructure throughput are the likely drivers of temporary emission reductions. Our results, along with past satellite observations, suggest that under more typical price conditions, the Permian Basin is in a state of overcapacity in which rapidly growing associated gas production exceeds midstream capacity and leads to high methane emissions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".