Seasonality in the Vertical Structure of Long-Term Temperature Trends Over North America
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The surface warming of northern continents during the twentieth century is not uniform across seasons. Surface warming is particularly pronounced over northwestern Canada, where winter trends are much larger than summer ones. The upper-air temperature trends over the region are analyzed in three radiosonde datasets from 1958 to 2012 to assess their seasonal structure. The seasonal variation of upper-air trends can provide insights into the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating these trends, including warming at the surface. The focus is not on the canonical structure of secular (i.e., long-term) trends—tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling—but its seasonal variation. We find the boreal winter-minus-summer difference in trends over northwestern Canada to be positive and large in the lower troposphere (p ≳ 500 hPa) and lower stratosphere (50 hPa ≲ p ≲ 150 hPa); it is largest at the surface and smallest at the tropopause. The decreasing seasonality of the tropospheric trend with height supports the attribution of the notable seasonality of surface warming in this region to both land–surface–hydroclimate interactions and changes in winter circulation. In the lower stratosphere, a cooling trend is evident in all seasons, not unexpectedly, but a pronounced seasonality is again apparent, with the strongest cooling in summer. The near-zero trend tropopause region is a rare point of confluence for seasonal trends.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".