Epidemiology of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases in Israel: A Nationwide Epi-Israeli IBD Research Nucleus Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: There are currently no nationwide data on the epidemiology of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) in Israel. We aimed to determine the population-based epidemiological trends of IBD in the diverse Israeli population. METHODS: Health-administrative data were retrieved from all 4 Israeli health maintenance organizations, insuring 98% of the population, using validated identification algorithms. National trends were determined using Joinpoint regression analysis calculating annual percent change and average annual percent change (AAPC). RESULTS: By 2019, there were 46,074 patients with IBD in Israel, corresponding to a national prevalence of 519/100,000 (0.52%), of whom 54.1% had Crohn disease (CD) and 45.9% had ulcerative colitis (UC). The number of Jewish patients doubled from 18,701 in 2005 (354/100,000) to 38,950 (589/100,000) in 2018 (AAPC, +4.0%; P < 0.05), and the number of Arab patients increased 3-fold from 1096 (102.1/100,000) to 3534 (240.7/100,000; AAPC, +6.8%; P < 0.05) during the same years. However, the increase rate has gradually decelerated over time (annual percent change during 2005-2008, 2009-2014, and 2005-2018 was +6.7%, +4.2%, and +2.3%, respectively; P < 0.05). Pediatric prevalence increased from 37.4 to 52.2/100,000, with CD predominating in both Jews and Arabs. The incidence of CD remained stable (from 15.9/100,000 to 14.9/100,000) and the incidence of UC decreased (15.4/100,000 to 10.5/100,000 (AAPC, -3.2%; P < 0.001)). In contrast, pediatric incidence of CD increased from 7.3/100,000 to 8.3/100,000 (AAPC, +1.9%; P < 0.05) and that of UC increased from 2.6 to 4.4/100,000 (AAPC, +5.8%; P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The IBD prevalence rate in Israel is still increasing but gradually decelerating, probably due to the decreasing overall IBD incidence. Nonetheless, incidence rate in children is still increasing. Ongoing narrowing in the rates between Jews and Arabs over time may indicate shared environmental factors.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".