The Sleep Apnea–Specific Pulse-Rate Response Predicts Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Rationale Randomized controlled trials have been unable to detect a cardiovascular benefit of continuous positive airway pressure in unselected patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). We hypothesize that deleterious cardiovascular outcomes are concentrated in a subgroup of patients with a heightened pulse-rate response to apneas and hypopneas (ΔHR). Methods We measured the ΔHR in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) (N = 1,395) and the SHHS (Sleep Heart Health Study) (N = 4,575). MESA data were used to determine the functional form of the association between the ΔHR and subclinical cardiovascular biomarkers, whereas primary analyses tested the association of the ΔHR with nonfatal or fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality in longitudinal data from the SHHS. Measurements and Main Results In the MESA, U-shaped relationships were observed between subclinical CVD biomarkers (coronary artery calcium, NT-proBNP [N-terminal prohormone BNP], and Framingham risk score) and the ΔHR; notably, a high ΔHR (upper quartile) was associated with elevated biomarker scores compared with a midrange ΔHR (25th–75th centiles). In the SHHS, individuals with a high ΔHR compared with a midrange ΔHR were at increased risk of nonfatal or fatal CVD and all-cause mortality (nonfatal adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval (CI)], 1.60 [1.28–2.00]; fatal adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI], 1.68 [1.22–2.30]; all-cause adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI], 1.29 [1.07–1.55]). The risk associated with a high ΔHR was particularly high in those with a substantial hypoxic burden (nonfatal, 1.93 [1.36–2.73]; fatal, 3.50 [2.15–5.71]; all-cause, 1.84 [1.40–2.40]) and was exclusively observed in nonsleepy individuals. Conclusions Individuals with OSA who demonstrate an elevated ΔHR are at increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. This study identifies a prognostic biomarker for OSA that appears useful for risk stratification and patient selection for future clinical trials.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it