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Record W3121430106

All’s Well that Ends Well: Addressing End-of-Life Liabilities for Oil and Gas Wells

2017· article· en· W3121430106 on OpenAlex
Benjamin Dachis, Blake Schaffer, Vincent Thivierge

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueC.D. Howe Institute Commentary · 2017
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicLaw, Economics, and Judicial Systems
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsCreditorGreenhouse gasBusinessNatural resource economicsFossil fuelLiabilityFinanceDebtEconomicsEngineeringWaste management
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The recent downturn in energy prices has shone a spotlight on the issue of cleaning up inactive oil and gas wells. In Alberta, mounting insolvencies have caused the number of “orphaned” wells – i.e., without a financially accountable owner – to balloon from fewer than 100 to 3, 200 in the past five years. With low energy prices, that list of wells risks growing longer. Of the roughly 450, 000 wells registered in the province, approximately 155, 000 are no longer producing but not yet fully remediated. These wells impose potential risks and costs not borne by those who benefited during the productive phase. These include the opportunity cost of taking up land that can’t be used for other purposes, risks to households from released gas and explosions, risks to the local environment from water and soil contamination, and broader risks due to leaking greenhouse gases. Moreover, the cost to clean up wells from no-longer-viable owners has the potential to spill over to surviving firms in the industry and, ultimately, citizens. In a stress test, we estimate the potential social cost of well liabilities to be as high as $8 billion. Alberta, along with other energy producing provinces in Canada, has a system in place to manage the risk of end-of-life well liability. However, a system that worked in the past is now strained under the weight of low prices. In addition, a recent court decision placing financial creditors in higher priority than environmental liabilities has further degraded the efficacy of current policies. This speaks to the need for reform. To its credit, the Alberta government is in the midst of consultations on reforming the province’s well liability policies. In this Commentary, we propose a two-part solution of partial bonding and mandated insurance for existing and new wells. First, we recommend the province introduce an upfront bonding requirement. However, this bonding requirement should be less than the full expected liability cost. This recognizes that society should accept some risk in exchange for greater economic activity, as well as aligning with the time profile of a well’s net asset value. Second, once a well enters the inactive phase, the province should require companies to hold insurance to cover the cost of cleaning up the well. In comparison to a strict time limit on inactive wells, an insurance requirement would allow firms to weigh the increased cost of holding unproductive wells against the potential value of returning them to production. We hope our recommendations are considered by the current Alberta review of end-of-life well policies, due to report by the end of 2017.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.798
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.104
GPT teacher head0.273
Teacher spread0.169 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it