Exchange Rate of the US Dollar and the J Curve: The Case of Oil Exporting Countries
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study examines the effects of changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar on the trade balances of three oil-exporting countries, namely Iran, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. An exchange rate pass-through model is applied to allow changes in the exchange rate of the dollar to affect prices of traded goods. Then, the impact of changes in prices on the quantities of imports and exports of these economies is estimated. The results suggest a partial exchange rate pass-through to these countries’ import and export prices in terms of the US dollar. While the three countries raise the price of their primary export (namely crude oil) in response to a depreciation of the dollar, Saudi Arabia’s long-run pricing strategy in securing a larger market share stands in contrast to that of the two other OPEC members. The sum of the estimated long-run price elasticities of demand for imports and exports is found to exceed unity for Iran and Venezuela, but less than unity for Saudi Arabia.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".