The role of initial values in nonstationary fractional time series models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper, we analyze the influence of observed and unobserved initial values on the bias of the conditional maximum likelihood or conditional sum-of-squares (CSS, or least squares) estimator of the fractional parameter,d, in a nonstationary fractional time series model. The CSS estimator is popular in empirical work due, at least in part, to its simplicity and its feasibility, even in very complicated nonstationary models. We consider a process,Xt, for which data exist from some point in time, which we call –N0+ 1, but we only start observing it at a later time,t= 1. The parameter (d,μ,σ2) is estimated by CSS based on the model ${\rm{\Delta }}_0^d \left( {X_t - \mu } \right) = \varepsilon _t ,t = N + 1, \ldots ,N + T$ , conditional onX1,...,XN. We derive an expression for the second-order bias of $\hat d$ as a function of the initial values,Xt,t= –N0+ 1,...,N, and we investigate the effect on the bias of setting aside the firstNobservations as initial values. We compare $\hat d$ with an estimator, $\hat d_c $ , derived similarly but by choosingμ=C. We find, both theoretically and using a data set on voting behavior, that in many cases, the estimation of the parameterμpicks up the effect of the initial values even for the choiceN= 0. IfN0= 0, we show that the second-order bias can be completely eliminated by a simple bias correction. If, on the other hand,N0> 0, it can only be partly eliminated because the second-order bias term due to the initial values can only be diminished by increasingN.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.045 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".