Use of a Genetic Algorithm to Optimize a Numerical Weather Prediction System
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract An important step in an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) algorithm is the integration of an ensemble of short-range forecasts with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. A multiphysics approach is used in the Canadian global EnKF system. This paper explores whether the many integrations with different versions of the model physics can be used to obtain more accurate and more reliable probability distributions for the model parameters. Some model parameters have a continuous range of possible values. Other parameters are categorical and act as switches between different parameterizations. In an evolutionary algorithm, the member configurations that contribute most to the quality of the ensemble are duplicated, while adding a small perturbation, at the expense of configurations that perform poorly. The evolutionary algorithm is being used in the migration of the EnKF to a new version of the Canadian NWP model with upgraded physics. The quality of configurations is measured with both a deterministic and an ensemble score, using the observations assimilated in the EnKF system. When using the ensemble score in the evaluation, the algorithm is shown to be able to converge to non-Gaussian distributions. However, for several model parameters, there is not enough information to arrive at improved distributions. The optimized system features slight reductions in biases for radiance measurements that are sensitive to humidity. Modest improvements are also seen in medium-range ensemble forecasts.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".