The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Cattle Over 1995-2004
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The purpose of this report is to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services’ live cattle hedging recommendations over 1995-2004. Also, feeder cattle, corn, and soybean meal recommendations were evaluated as input hedges and combined with the live cattle marketing recommendations to approximate the margin that a typical feedlot would face from the third quarter of 1999 through 2004. Other marketing assumptions were also applied to approximate a real world feedlot in Western Kansas. Several key assumptions are 1) the feedlot markets on average 1 cwt. of live cattle per quarter, inputs are purchased at rates that will yield on average 1 cwt. of live cattle per quarter, or 4 cwt. total per year, 2) the marketing widow for live cattle marketings begins six months prior to the start of the marketing quarter, making the total marketing window nine months long, 3) brokerage costs are subtracted from futures and options markets gains or losses and 4) the quarterly purchases of inputs, live cattle marketings and benchmark prices are weighted by quarter to reflect the cyclical nature of live cattle marketing.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".