Dark Matter Constraints from a Unified Analysis of Strong Gravitational Lenses and Milky Way Satellite Galaxies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Joint analyses of small-scale cosmological structure probes are relatively unexplored and promise to advance measurements of microphysical dark matter properties using heterogeneous data. Here, we present a multidimensional analysis of dark matter substructure using strong gravitational lenses and the Milky Way (MW) satellite galaxy population, accounting for degeneracies in model predictions and using covariances in the constraining power of these individual probes for the first time. We simultaneously infer the projected subhalo number density and the half-mode mass describing the suppression of the subhalo mass function in thermal relic warm dark matter (WDM), M hm , using the semianalytic model Galacticus to connect the subhalo population inferred from MW satellite observations to the strong lensing host halo mass and redshift regime. Combining MW satellite and strong lensing posteriors in this parameter space yields M hm < 10 7.0 M ⊙ (WDM particle mass m WDM > 9.7 keV) at 95% confidence and disfavors M hm = 10 7.4 M ⊙ ( m WDM = 7.4 keV) with a 20:1 marginal likelihood ratio, improving limits on m WDM set by the two methods independently by ∼30%. These results are marginalized over the line-of-sight contribution to the strong lensing signal, the mass of the MW host halo, and the efficiency of subhalo disruption due to baryons and are robust to differences in the disruption efficiency between the MW and strong lensing regimes at the ∼10% level. This work paves the way for unified analyses of next-generation small-scale structure measurements covering a wide range of scales and redshifts.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".