U.S.-CANADA WHEAT TRADE AND ITS EFFECTS ON U.S. PRICE AND INCOME
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The objectives of this study are to analyze the factors causing an increase in wheat imports from Canada and to estimate the effect of increased wheat imports on U.S. prices and farm income. An econometric model is developed and estimated to determine these factors and effects. Canadian exports to the United States are estimated as a function of U.S. price, the U.S. - Canada exchange rate, and other variables, while U.S. price is estimated as a function of imports from Canada, U.S. domestic supply and consumption, and exports. The two equations are estimated simultaneously. Results from this model are used to estimate the effect of imports from Canada on U.S. farm prices and income. Results indicate that imports from Canada have a significant negative effect on U.S. hard red spring and durum wheat prices and consequently decrease farm income for U.S. producers. However, while the effect is significant, it is still only a small portion of the total decrease in price in recent years. Some portion of the increased wheat imports is due to the elimination of import restrictions under the Canada - U.S. Free Trade Agreement, but other factors such as the exchange rate are also important.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".