Mortality in older adults following a fragility fracture: real-world retrospective matched-cohort study in Ontario
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Recent studies are lacking reports on mortality after non-hip fractures in adults aged > 65. METHODS: This retrospective, matched-cohort study used de-identified health services data from the publicly funded healthcare system in Ontario, Canada, contained in the ICES Data Repository. Patients aged 66 years and older with an index fragility fracture occurring at any osteoporotic site between 2011 and 2015 were identified from acute hospital admissions, emergency and ambulatory care using International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes and data were analyzed until 2017. Thus, follow-up ranged from 2 years to 6 years. Patients were excluded if they presented with an index fracture occurring at a non-osteoporotic fracture site, their index fracture was associated with a trauma code, or they experienced a previous fracture within 5 years prior to their index fracture. This fracture cohort was matched 1:1 to controls within a non-fracture cohort by date, sex, age, geography and comorbidities. All-cause mortality risk was assessed. RESULTS: The survival probability for up to 6 years post-fracture was significantly reduced for the fracture cohort vs matched non-fracture controls (p < 0.0001; n = 101,773 per cohort), with the sharpest decline occurring within the first-year post-fracture. Crude relative risk of mortality (95% confidence interval) within 1-year post-fracture was 2.47 (2.38-2.56) in women and 3.22 (3.06-3.40) in men. In the fracture vs non-fracture cohort, the absolute mortality risk within one year after a fragility fracture occurring at any site was 12.5% vs 5.1% in women and 19.5% vs 6.0% in men. The absolute mortality risk within one year after a fragility fracture occurring at a non-hip vs hip site was 9.4% vs 21.5% in women and 14.4% vs 32.3% in men. CONCLUSIONS: In this real-world cohort aged > 65 years, a fragility fracture occurring at any site was associated with reduced survival for up to 6 years post-fracture. The greatest reduction in survival occurred within the first-year post-fracture, where mortality risk more than doubled and deaths were observed in 1 in 11 women and 1 in 7 men following a non-hip fracture and in 1 in 5 women and 1 in 3 men following a hip fracture.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it