The Dynamics of Geographic versus Sectoral Diversification: Is There a Link to the Real Economy?
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We study the dynamics of gains from sectoral versus geographic diversification and relate economic sources to changes in those gains. We estimate conditional correlations between returns on the US equity market and 16 equity markets and 10 local industries from other OECD countries and find that the average correlation across countries has increased in relation to that across industries. We also show that this process is accompanied by increased alignment in the industrial structures across countries and an increase in the average conditional correlation of aggregate production growth across countries relative to that of disaggregated production growth, especially among developed economies. Thus, the increased benefits of industry-level investing across developed markets are reflected in the real side of the global economy. However, country-level investing should remain the predominant asset allocation approach in emerging markets.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it