The Transition to Work for Canadian University Graduates: Time to First Job, 1982-1990
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Using three waves (1982, 1986, 1990) of the National Graduate Survey (NGS) we analyze the time it takes graduates of Canadian universities to start a full time job that lasts six months or more. We analyze duration to first job using the Cox proportional hazards model. Our results suggest large differences in the speed of the transition to work both within and between cohorts. They also suggest that the differences in duration to first job across NGS cohorts are not just driven by differences in business cycle conditions at the time of graduation. Over certain segments of duration the patterns of job-starting are similar across cohorts. Within cohorts the differences in the school-to-work transition across certain demographic groups are small, and for some the differences remain stable across cohorts.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it