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Record W3122574835

Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles

2004· preprint· en· W3122574835 on OpenAlex
David Norman, Thomas D. Walker

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueRePEc: Research Papers in Economics · 2004
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicNew Zealand Economic and Social Studies
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsBusiness cycleMovement (music)State (computer science)Variety (cybernetics)EconometricsEconomicsRange (aeronautics)MacroeconomicsStatisticsMathematicsPhysicsEngineering
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

We use a variety of techniques to examine the nature and degree of co-movement among Australian state business cycles. Our results indicate that these cycles move quite closely together, with particularly strong links between the cycles of the larger states. This finding is robust to a range of statistical measures. We also use an unobserved components model to attempt to distinguish the sources of this co-movement. An implication of our model is that the major source of cyclical fluctuation in state activity is shocks that are common to all states. Region-specific shocks appear to have a moderate influence on cyclical fluctuations, while spillovers of such shocks from one state to another seem to play only a minor role. These findings are consistent with the results of recent studies for the United States, Canada and Europe, where common shocks have also been found to dominate regional cyclical activity.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.357
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.065
GPT teacher head0.315
Teacher spread0.250 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it