Příspěvek k časnějším odhadům hodnot čtvrtletních národních účtů [Contribution to the Earlier Estimations of Quarterly National Accounts]
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Quarterly national accounts provide short-term macroeconomic information matched with those of the annual accounts. Their mission is to provide synthetic information as soon as possible after the end of the quarter. Due to the pressure, caused by Eurostat shortening deadlines on publishing this information, the task is more of creating a methodology to be used in the Czech Republic. Based on faster and more effi cient approaches, it should enable to perform and present estimates of aggregates of quarterly national accounts for the last quarter (and forecasts for the current quarter) at a satisfactory level of reliability. Basic considerations on the methods of quarterly estimation should therefore depend on indirect methods, ie., on mathematical and statistical models, that enable (given there is a system of short survey estimates) to accelerate and shorten publishing. The article off ers an original methodology of estimating quarterly national accounts values, based on time series analysis and presents the results on the data of national accounts of the Czech Republic.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.015 | 0.006 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".