Semiparametric Innovation-Based Tests of Orthogonality and Causality Between Two Infinite-Order Cointegrated Ceries with Application to Canada/US Monetary Interactions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We propose a semiparametric approach for testing orthogonality and causality between two infinite-order cointegrated vector autoregressive IVAR(1) series. The procedures considered can be viewed as extensions of classical methods proposed by Haugh (1976, JASA) and Hong (1996, Biometrika) for testing independence between stationary univariate time series. The tests are based on the residuals of long autoregressions, hence allowing for computational simplicity, weak assumptions on the form of the underlying process, and a direct interpretation of the results in terms of innovations (or reduced-form shocks). The test statistics are standardized versions of the sum of weighted squares of residual cross-correlation matrices. The weights depend on a kernel function and a truncation parameter. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics under the null hypothesis are derived, and consistency is established against fixed alternatives of serial cross-correlation of unknown form. Apart from standardization factors, the multivariate portmanteau statistic which takes into account a fixed number of lags, can be viewed as a special case of our procedure based on the truncated uniform kernel. A simulation study is presented which indicates that the proposed tests have good size and power properties in finite samples. The proposed procedures are applied to study interactions between Canadian and American monetary quarterly variables associated with monetary policy (money, interest rates, prices, aggregate output). The empirical results clearly allow to reject the absence of correlation between the shocks in both countries, and indicate a unidirectional Granger causality running from the U.S. variables to the Canadian ones.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.040 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".