Developing Countries' Borrowing in the International Financial Market with an Uncertain Credit Ceiling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The sovereign literature of the 1980s made the important point that lenders to a sovereign country will impose a credit ceiling on their lending, because at a sufficiently high level of the country will find it less onerous to default than to keep on servicing its debt. Provided that the borrower and its lenders agree on the level of the credit ceiling, there is no default in equilibrium. But is this a realistic assumption? If the credit ceiling is not clearly known or it changes widely with perceptions about the country's future prospects, so does the macroeconomic equilibrium of the borrowing country, making debt problems more likely. A baseline deterministic model shows that consumption, investment, and the current account deficit depend positively on the credit ceiling, implying that more optimistic expectations about the country's future access to external financing lead to larger current account deficits today. An extension of the model to the case where the credit ceiling is now known with certainty shows that the shadow cost of external credit exceeds its contractual interest rate. Therefore, optimal consumption, investment, and current account deficits are more moderate under uncertainty.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".