Umibato: estimation of time-varying microbial interaction using continuous-time regression hidden Markov model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Motivation Accumulating evidence has highlighted the importance of microbial interaction networks. Methods have been developed for estimating microbial interaction networks, of which the generalized Lotka-Volterra equation (gLVE)-based method can estimate a directed interaction network. The previous gLVE-based method for estimating microbial interaction networks did not consider time-varying interactions. Results In this study, we developed u nsupervised learning based m icrobial i nteraction inference method using Ba yesian es t imati o n (Umibato), a method for estimating time-varying microbial interactions. The Umibato algorithm comprises Gaussian process regression (GPR) and a new Bayesian probabilistic model, the continuous-time regression hidden Markov model (CTRHMM). Growth rates are estimated by GPR, and interaction networks are estimated by CTRHMM. CTRHMM can estimate time-varying interaction networks using interaction states, which are defined as hidden variables. Umibato outperformed the existing methods on synthetic datasets. In addition, it yielded reasonable estimations in experiments on a mouse gut microbiota dataset, thus providing novel insights into the relationship between consumed diets and the gut microbiota. Availability The C++ and python source codes of the Umibato software are available at https://github.com/shion-h/Umibato Contact shion_hosoda@asagi.waseda.jp , mhamada@waseda.jp
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".