Five Years of Inflation Targeting Without Economic Growth: What Should Be Changed? The Case of Russia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The article provides a review of approaches to assessing and analyzing the effectiveness of the interest rate and exchange rate policy of the Bank of Russia in the period 2015-2019. Despite the decrease in the rate of price growth, inflationary expectations of economic agents remain at a high level. Monetary policy continues to be tight. The stability of the exchange rate to external shocks, expected from the introduction of inflation targeting and a free floating rate, did not happen. The complex of conditions that have developed due to geopolitical factors, low growth rates and the global economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic require the search for new targets, such as economic growth and exchange rate stability. To maintain the stability of the ruble exchange rate, it is recommended to sell foreign exchange reserves accumulated according to the "Budget rule" in an equivalent amount; to support the liquidity of banks during periods of an attack on the ruble, it should through foreign exchange REPO, and develop a derivatives market.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".