Malthusian pressures: Empirical evidence from a frontier economy
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper we study Malthusian pressures in a frontier economy. Using\nthe empirical data on the real prices and demographic variables from 1688\nto 1860 for Quebec and Montreal, we test for the existence of Malthusian\npressures. Bearing in mind the particularities of frontier economies and the\ndevelopment of the Canadian economy, we conduct cointegration tests and\nVARs in order to identify positive and preventive checks. The cointegration\ntest reveals absence of long-run equilibrium relationship between real wheat\nprices, birth and death rates. Using the Bai-Perron test we find a structural\nbreak in 1767 and divide the sample in pre- and post-conquest periods. We\nfind that the positive checks were operating in the years prior to the conquest\nbut that they faded during the nineteenth century. In the short-run,\nwe find that wheat prices Granger-cause fluctuations in death rates in the\npre-conquest period.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".