Risk of Disability, Old-age and Death: Pension Sustainability in Colombia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper concludes that the sustainability of the public “pay-as-you-go” pension regime in Colombia (RPM) looks fragile and is threatened by massive transfers from the private “defined contributions” regime (RAIS) to the RPM. The fiscal deficit of the RPM could be rising from 140% of GDP (in NPV) to 228% of GDP during the next three decades on account of the migration of close to nine million retirees moving to the RPM. Pressure to the fiscal budget will increase towards 90% of GDP (in NPV) as a result of the pension shortfall, making it very difficult to comply with a fiscal target of 4% of GDP per year. In addition, the life annuities’ market is quite shallow in Colombia due to: i) the State guarantee of a pension equivalent to 100% of a legal-minimum-wage (1 LMW); which in turn is fully indexed to annual inflation; and ii) the risk of assuming longer periods of pension enjoyment via judicial sentences (elevating the current expectations of 20-25 year period of enjoyment). Limiting the pension guarantee to 50-75% of a LMW, allowing for life-annuities recalculation, and decreasing the cost-margin of insurance companies would help place the Colombian life annuities market in a more financially sustainable path.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".