Information Aggregation in a Prediction Market for Climate Outcomes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Two forms of uncertainty in climate policy are the wide range of estimated marginal costs and uncertainty over credibility of rival information sources. We show how a recently-proposed solution to the first problem also addresses the second. The policy is an emissions tax tied to average temperatures, coupled with permits that exempt the emitter from paying the tax in a future year. It has been shown that the resulting tax path will be correlated with future marginal damages. It has been conjectured that the permit prices will yield unbiased forecasts of the climate, which, if true, would address the second uncertainty. We confirm the conjecture by showing a trading mechanism that converges on unbiased forecasts if traders are risk-neutral. Risk aversion slows down but does not prevent convergence. We also show that the forecasts are more likely to be sufficient statistics the stronger the consensus on climate science.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.036 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.009 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".