The Exchange Rate - A Shock-Absorber or Source of Shocks? A Study of Four Open Economies
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The paper provides SVAR estimates for four open economies, those of the UK, Canada, Sweden and Denmark, making explicit a monetary policy reaction function and taking account of exchange rate targeting practices. The object of the analysis is to examine the idea that an independent money and exchange rate allow for effective shock-absorption. A polar extreme would be that exchange markets breed their own, and destabilizing, shocks. The paper's findings vary from one economy to another: monetary union appears easy to recommend for Sweden and Denmark, much less so for Canada and the UK. Keywords: Optimal Currency Area, Structural Vector Autoregression, UK, Canada, Denmark, Sweden, EMU. JEL: C32, E42, F31, F33 * We would like to thank Frank Smets for sharing his computer code. We should also like to acknowledge Andreas Beyer, Martin Ellison, Michael Funke and Katarina Juselius for helpful comments. We are grateful to the Research Council of the European University Institute for financial support. RSC 2000/38 2000 Michael Artis & Michael Ehrmann RSC 2000/38 2000 Michael Artis & Michael Ehrmann 1.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it