The History of Inflation Targeting in the Czech Republic through Optic of a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Using a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated for the Czech Republic and the method of Kalman filtration we first estimate impact of structural shocks on the observed realization of interest rate and inflation, while the main focus is put on the estimation of monetary policy shocks. These occur whenever monetary policy is not set in accordance to the observed state of the economy and inflation target. Our results suggest that monetary policy was more restrictive than implied by the observed state of the economy and inflation target in three periods: from the second quarter of 1998 till the first quarter of 1999, from the third quarter of 2001 till the second quarter of 2003 and finally from the third quarter of 2004 till the end of 2005. In contrary, in period from the third quarter of 2003 till the second quarter of 2004 we identify looser monetary policy. Consequently and based on the assumption that monetary policy does not make mistakes, but focuses on a different inflation target than the officially announced one, we estimate an implicit trajectory of the inflation target. Inflation target that well fits the observed behaviour of the central bank is inflation targets fluctuating between 2 and 3 % since the year 2002.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".