Fetal Exposure to Abnormal Rainfall Events and Later-Life Outcomes in Colombia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper provides estimates of the long-term impacts of prenatal exposure to rainfall shocks using Colombian data. I find that individuals prenatally exposed to rainfall shocks have fewer years of schooling, display increased rates of illiteracy, are less likely to work in the market, and are more likely to report serious mental and physical illness. This paper then uses historical information on malaria risk and fraction of population depending on farming to analyze the extent to which agricultural income and disease shocks may be the mechanisms driving the results. The patterns I find are generally consistent with these hypotheses Acknowledgement : I appreciate support and helpful comments from Danyelle Branco, Carlos Charris, Micheliana Costa, Wescley Freitas, Wilman Iglesias, Juan Trujillo, Raul Velilla, Ian Trotter, and participants at various seminars. I am grateful to the Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE) and the International Development Research Centre (Ottawa, Canada) for substantial funding for this project.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".