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Record W3125490444

Assessing Canada’s Drug Shortage Problem

2018· article· en· W3125490444 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueC.D. Howe Institute Commentary · 2018
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicPharmaceutical Economics and Policy
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsEconomic shortageInnovatorMedical prescriptionHarmBusinessMedicineHealth careEnforcementEconomic growthNursingEconomicsPolitical scienceFinanceGovernment (linguistics)Law
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Drug shortages provoke great anxiety among patients who cannot obtain trusted medications for chronic conditions. For pharmacists and the care team, shortages demand time-consuming and often frustrating searches for alternatives. For patients, they result in the stress and harm of delayed treatments and surgeries. For governments, they increase healthcare expenditures to acquire the scarce products or their replacements from other sources or innovator substitutes. Some studies have shown that drug shortages might lead to illness and even premature death (Metzger, Billett, and Link 2012; United States 2015). In this Commentary, we examine the size of the drug shortage problem in Canada between 2010 and 2017, scan the stated reasons for shortages internationally, and look at various proposed solutions. Approximately 1, 000 shortages have been reported annually, affecting 1, 250 products during a recent three-year period. Indeed, the number of shortages appears to be increasing, although this apparent rise might be explained by growing pressure to adhere to the policy of mandatory notification introduced in 2016, even if its enforcement is still lacking. The majority (77 percent) of drug shortages involve generic drugs, although a significant proportion (23 percent) also affected innovator drugs. These figures correspond to the relative prescription volume of generic and innovator drugs. Several surveys by pharmacists, physicians and various specialties have documented the extent of the drug shortage affecting the majority of practitioners in every province, and find it present over a wide array of products (Canadian Pharmacists Association 2010, 2011; Hall et al. 2013; Sullivan 2014). The precise causes of Canadian drug shortages are unknown and little has been done to conduct root-cause analysis or explore the consequences of Canada’s limited capacity to supply its needs for medicines with locally manufactured active ingredients and finished products. Drug shortages are a global problem, although their manifestations vary among countries. Most countries do not measure them, but media sources report on individual crises as they emerge, detailing their effects on pressing health problems. A stable supply solution of a diversity of medicines is necessary to keep healthcare costs down, avoid expensive solutions to sudden emergencies and maintain access to medications for the entire population, including the 10 percent of Canadians who cannot afford their prescription drugs (Law et al. 2012). We hope that regular analysis of the drug shortage problem will generate insight into the extent of the problem, its possible causes and provide a baseline for assessing the effectiveness of policies created to manage and prevent it. We urge Health Canada to provide annual reports on the drug shortage problem in an effort to define it, explain it and, above all, solve it. Only when the causes are identified can solutions be found.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: Not applicable
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.376
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.071
GPT teacher head0.299
Teacher spread0.228 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it