The roles of birth inputs and outputs in predicting health, behaviour and test scores in early childhood
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The goal of this study is to address directly the predictive value of birth inputs and outputs, particularly birth weight, for measures of early childhood development in a simultaneous equations modelling framework. Strikingly, birth outputs have virtually no structural/causal effects on early childhood developmental outcomes, and only maternal smoking and drinking during pregnancy have some effects on child height. Not surprisingly, family child-rearing environment has sizeable negative and positive effects on a behavioural problems index and a mathematics/reading test score, respectively, and a mildly surprising negative effect on child height. Despite little evidence of a structural/causal effect of birth weight on early childhood developmental outcomes, our results demonstrate that birth weight nonetheless has strong predictive effects on early childhood outcomes. Furthermore, these effects are largely invariant to whether family child-rearing environment is taken into account. Family child-rearing environment has both structural and predictive effects on early childhood outcomes, but they are largely orthogonal and in addition to the effects of birth weight.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.034 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".