Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study examines the potential impact of the 2008-2009 financial crisis on economic growth. Expectations of future growth are critical to evaluating of the sustainability of overall budget trends and the financial condition of the Old-Age Survivors and Disability Insurance (OASDI) and Medicare trust funds. The paper includes an assessment of the experience of other industrial economies with similar situations in earlier decades. The Nordic countries achieved a relatively complete recovery within a period of 5-10 years, but the slump in economic growth in Japan has continued for over a quarter century. The analysis of the current experience in the United States focuses on recent changes in the supply of labor and capital and changes in the growth of total factor productivity (TFP). The large decline in the labor force participation rate is largely the result of demographic changes and not the recession. Similarly, the growth of TFP has slowed in recent years, but most studies perceive it as predating the onset of the recession. The paper finds that: - Even though they may not be directly due to the financial crisis, expectations have been cut back in a wide range of analyses of future growth prospects. - The recent decline in labor force participation is dominated by demographic changes that will continue in future decades. Only a small portion appears to be related to cyclical factors. - The growth in TFP has also slowed, but the change predates the financial crisis and is also likely to continue in future years. The policy implications of the findings are: - The economic assumptions that underlie current projections of government expenditure programs are likely to be overly optimistic, particularly because the changed expectations are not cyclical or temporary in nature.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".