Progressive Incrementalism: U.S Foreign Economic Policy Over the Next Four Years
Bibliographic record
Abstract
As we look ahead following last year’s U.S. presidential and congressional elections, Canadians — and Canadian business in particular — will want to have a better sense of the economic prospects, as well as the context, of U.S. foreign economic policy over the coming half-decade or so. For, notwithstanding all the talk, debates, op-ed articles, thinktank-pieces and even books in recent years suggesting or asserting the decline of American economic power, Canada’s ever-present integration and interdependence with our southern neighbour is both a reality and now, again, an important, medium-term asset. Over the coming four years and likely beyond, and once it has completed sorting out its “fiscal cliff” matter, the U.S. is positioned to be the source of increasing economic growth. The American economy has strengths: its high productivity and innovation compared to most other countries, massive piles of private sector cash leading to all sorts of investment potential, a devalued currency, and a relatively young workforce compared to the European Union, Japan, and even Canada. Therefore, although the U.S. economy continues to face large challenges related to fiscal imbalances, there are reasons to expect increasing economic growth over the medium term. Volume
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.009 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.011 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.008 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".