Variation and Change of Upwelling Dynamics Detected in the World’s Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Global increases in temperature are altering land-sea temperature gradients. Bakun (1990) hypothesized that changes within these gradients will directly affect atmospheric pressure cells associated with the development of winds and will consequently impact upwelling patterns within ecologically important Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS). In this study we used daily time series of NOAA Optimally Interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) and ERA 5 reanalysis wind products to calculate a series novel of metrics related to upwelling dynamics. We then use these to objectively describe upwelling signals in terms of their frequency, intensity and duration throughout the four EBUS during summer months over the last 37 years (1982–2019). We found that a decrease (increase) in SST is associated with an increase (decrease) in the number of upwelling “events,” a decrease (increase) in the intensity of upwelling, and an increase (decrease) in the cumulative intensity of upwelling, with differences between EBUS and regions within EBUS. The Humboldt Current is the only EBUS that shows a consistent response from north to south with a general intensification of upwelling. However, we could not provide clear evidence for associated changes in the wind dynamics hypothesized to drive the upwelling dynamics.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it