Transfer Learning by Similarity Centred Architecture Evolution for Multiple Residential Load Forecasting
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The development from traditional low voltage grids to smart systems has become extensive and adopted worldwide. Expanding the demand response program to cover the residential sector raises a wide range of challenges. Short term load forecasting for residential consumers in a neighbourhood could lead to a better understanding of low voltage consumption behaviour. Nevertheless, users with similar characteristics can present diversity in consumption patterns. Consequently, transfer learning methods have become a useful tool to tackle differences among residential time series. This paper proposes a method combining evolutionary algorithms for neural architecture search with transfer learning to perform short term load forecasting in a neighbourhood with multiple household load consumption. The approach centres its efforts on neural architecture search using evolutionary algorithms. The neural architecture evolution process retains the patterns of the centre-most house, and later the architecture weights are adjusted for each house in a multihouse set from a neighbourhood. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to ensure model performance. Experimental results on a large dataset containing hourly load consumption for ten houses in London, Ontario showed that the performance of the proposed approach performs better than the compared techniques. Moreover, the proposed method presents the average accuracy performance of 3.17 points higher than the state-of-the-art LSTM one shot method.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".