Discovering Energy Consumption Patterns with Unsupervised Machine Learning for Canadian In Situ Oil Sands Operations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Canada’s in situ oil sands can help meet the global oil demand. Because of the energy-intensive extraction processes, in situ oil sands operations also play a critical role in meeting the global carbon budget. The steam oil ratio (SOR) is an indicator used to measure energy efficiency and assess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the in situ oil sands industry. A low SOR indicates an extraction process that is more energy efficient and less carbon intensive. In this study, we applied machine learning methods for data-driven discovery to a public database, Petrinex, containing operating data from 2015 to 2019 extracted from over 35 million records for 20 in situ oil sands extraction operations. Two unsupervised machine learning methods, including clustering and association rules, showed that the cyclic steam stimulation (CSS) recovery method was less efficient than the steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) recovery method. Chi-square tests showed a statistically significant association between the CSS recovery method and high SOR (p < 0.005). Two association rules suggested that the occurrence of non-condensable gas (NCG) co-injection produced a low SOR. Chi-square tests on the two rules identified a statistically significant relationship between gas co-injection and low SOR (p < 0.005). Association rules also indicated that there was no association between the production regions and SORs. For future in situ oil sands development, decision-makers should consider SAGD as the preferred method because it is less carbon intensive. Existing in situ oil sands projects and future development should explore the possibility of NCG co-injection with steam to reduce steam consumption and consequently reduce GHG emissions from the extraction processes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".