Warm and cool season reconstruction and assessment of the long‐term hydroclimatic variability of the Canadian prairie provinces through the development of the Canadian Prairies Paleo Drought Atlas
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Persistent, large‐area droughts are among the most damaging natural disasters, having major effects on agriculture, industry, forestry, human health and society, and ecosystems. In the Canadian Prairie provinces of the sub‐humid continental interior, changing climatic conditions, and shifts between periods of extreme wet and dry weather, emphasize the need for a better understanding of past and future variability of the regional hydroclimate. Using over 180 multi‐species tree‐ring chronologies, the warm (May through August) and cool (December through April) season Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was reconstructed from 1400 to 2018 on a 10‐km grid spanning the Canadian Prairies. These geospatial paleo‐drought data extend back to 1200 over a smaller geographic area. Seasonal SPEI maps, comprising the newly developed Canadian Prairies Paleo Drought Atlas (CPPDA), visually represent the hydroclimatic variability across the Canadian Prairies over past centuries, including the timing, intensity, and spatial extent of major multi‐year droughts and excessive moisture events. Wavelet analysis was also examined to determine possible potential connections between hydroclimatic variables and the influence of large‐scale ocean–atmosphere oscillations (i.e., the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".