A Hybrid Deep Learning-Based State Forecasting Method for Smart Power Grids
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Smart power grids are one of the most complex cyber-physical systems, delivering electricity from power generation stations to consumers. It is critically important to know exactly the current state of the system as well as its state variation tendency; consequently, state estimation and state forecasting are widely used in smart power grids. Given that state forecasting predicts the system state ahead of time, it can enhance state estimation because state estimation is highly sensitive to measurement corruption due to the bad data or communication failures. In this paper, a hybrid deep learningbased method is proposed for power system state forecasting. The proposed method leverages Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for predicting voltage magnitudes and a Deep Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) for predicting phase angels. The proposed CNN-RNN model is evaluated on the IEEE 118-bus benchmark. The results demonstrate that the proposed CNNRNN model achieves better results than the existing techniques in the literature by reducing the normalized Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of predicted voltages by 10%. The results also show a 65% and 35% decrease in the average and maximum absolute error of voltage magnitude forecasting.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".