Global Displacement of ISIS Activities and the Effectiveness of Police Arrests as a Means of Deterrence
Bibliographic record
Abstract
U.S.-led coalition forces liberated all of the territory ISIS held in Syria and Iraq in the first quarter of 2019. Although the defeat was a significant achievement, ISIS continues its activities outside the Syria and Iraq region. Turkey matters to ISIS because the group carries out attacks and uses the country to move fighters and supplies. However, Turkey relies heavily on police crackdowns to deter terrorism. Drawing on data from the Armed Conflict Event and Location Database, the Turkish Ministry of Interior, and an online news source, the current study first analyzed trends in ISIS attacks around the world. Then, it explored the extent to which police arrests prevent ISIS from further deadly attacks in Turkey. Results from the study suggest that ISIS activities are likely to decrease in Syria and Iraq after the U.S.-led military operations but increase in other countries. Also, mass arrests were ineffective in preventing subsequent deadly attacks in Turkey. Policy implications are discussed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.016 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".