A real-world demonstration of machine learning generalizability in the detection of intracranial hemorrhage on head computerized tomography
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Machine learning (ML) holds great promise in transforming healthcare. While published studies have shown the utility of ML models in interpreting medical imaging examinations, these are often evaluated under laboratory settings. The importance of real world evaluation is best illustrated by case studies that have documented successes and failures in the translation of these models into clinical environments. A key prerequisite for the clinical adoption of these technologies is demonstrating generalizable ML model performance under real world circumstances. The purpose of this study was to demonstrate that ML model generalizability is achievable in medical imaging with the detection of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) on non-contrast computed tomography (CT) scans serving as the use case. An ML model was trained using 21,784 scans from the RSNA Intracranial Hemorrhage CT dataset while generalizability was evaluated using an external validation dataset obtained from our busy trauma and neurosurgical center. This real world external validation dataset consisted of every unenhanced head CT scan (n = 5965) performed in our emergency department in 2019 without exclusion. The model demonstrated an AUC of 98.4%, sensitivity of 98.8%, and specificity of 98.0%, on the test dataset. On external validation, the model demonstrated an AUC of 95.4%, sensitivity of 91.3%, and specificity of 94.1%. Evaluating the ML model using a real world external validation dataset that is temporally and geographically distinct from the training dataset indicates that ML generalizability is achievable in medical imaging applications.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.021 | 0.072 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".