Assessment of the predictive capacity of a physiologically based kinetic model using a read-across approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
With current progress in science, there is growing interest in developing and applying Physiologically Based Kinetic (PBK) models in chemical risk assessment, as knowledge of internal exposure to chemicals is critical to understanding potential effects in vivo. In particular, a new generation of PBK models is being developed in which the model parameters are derived from in silico and in vitro methods. To increase the acceptance and use of these "Next Generation PBK models", there is a need to demonstrate their validity. However, this is challenging in the case of data-poor chemicals that are lacking in kinetic data and for which predictive capacity cannot, therefore, be assessed. The aim of this work is to lay down the fundamental steps in using a read across framework to inform modellers and risk assessors on how to develop, or evaluate, PBK models for chemicals without in vivo kinetic data. The application of a PBK model that takes into account the absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion characteristics of the chemical reduces the uncertainties in the biokinetics and biotransformation of the chemical of interest. A strategic flow-charting application, proposed herein, allows users to identify the minimum information to perform a read-across from a data-rich chemical to its data-poor analogue(s). The workflow analysis is illustrated by means of a real case study using the alkenylbenzene class of chemicals, showing the reliability and potential of this approach. It was demonstrated that a consistent quantitative relationship between model simulations could be achieved using models for estragole and safrole (source chemicals) when applied to methyleugenol (target chemical). When the PBK model code for the source chemicals was adapted to utilise input values relevant to the target chemical, simulation was consistent between the models. The resulting PBK model for methyleugenol was further evaluated by comparing the results to an existing, published model for methyleugenol, providing further evidence that the approach was successful. This can be considered as a "read-across" approach, enabling a valid PBK model to be derived to aid the assessment of a data poor chemical.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".