Source and spread dynamics of mountain pine beetle in central Alberta, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) is a significant destructive force in the pine forests of western Canada and has the capacity to spread east into a novel host tree species, jack pine (Pinaceae). New populations have been documented in central Alberta, Canada, but the source populations for these outbreaks have yet to be identified. In this study, we use genetic data to identify parent populations for recent outbreak sites near Slave Lake, Lac La Biche, and Hinton, Alberta. We found the northern population cluster that entered Alberta near Grande Prairie was the source of the most eastern established population near Lac La Biche, and the range expansion to this leading-edge population has been too rapid to establish evidence of population structure. However, some dispersal from a population in the Jasper and Hinton area has been detected as far north and east as Slave Lake, Alberta. We also identified two potential source populations for the current outbreak in Hinton: most beetles appear to be from Jasper National Park, Alberta, but some also originated from the northern population cluster. These findings demonstrate the dynamic dispersal capabilities of mountain pine beetle across the Alberta landscape and the potential hazard of increased dispersal to newly established leading-edge populations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".