A Selection Strategy for Kriging Based Design of Experiments by Spectral Clustering and Learning Function
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Reliability analysis evaluates the failure probability of structures considering random variables of a system. Existing methods such as first-order reliability method (FORM) and second-order reliability method (SORM) are difficult to predict the failure probability of implicit functions in mechanical structures. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) can predict the failure probability with high accuracy, but it is time-consuming. Agent-based methods such as the Kriging model have the approved performance to predict the failure probability in both efficiency and accuracy. An active method is proposed in this paper to improve the efficiency of predicting the probability of failures by combining the Kriging model and MCS, using a new learning function and its stopping condition. A representative selection strategy is developed based on spectral clustering to decide sample points in the design of experiments (DoEs). The new learning function integrates uncertainty and similarity of predicted Kriging values to search the next best sample point for updating the initial DoE. The learning process is terminated based on the stopping condition for a given accuracy of predicted probability of failures. Four case studies are conducted to validate the proposed method. Results show that the proposed method can predict the probability of failures with improved accuracy and reduced time.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it